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Autodesk Flare 2020 Prediction

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A new approach to solar flare prediction

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Abstract

All three components of the current density are required to compute the heating rate due to free magnetic energy dissipation. Here we present a first test of a new model developed to determine if the times of increases in the resistive heating rate in active region (AR) photospheres are correlated with the subsequent occurrence of M and X flares in the corona. A data driven, 3D, non-force-free magnetohydrodynamic model restricted to the near-photospheric region is used to compute time series of the complete current density and the resistive heating rate per unit volume [Q(t)] in each pixel in neutral line regions (NLRs) of 14 ARs. The model is driven by time series of the magnetic field B measured by the Helioseismic & Magnetic Imager on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Spurious Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series for B in every AR pixel. For each AR, the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the values of the NLR area integral Qi(t) of Q(t) is found to be a scale invariant power law distribution essentially identical to the observed CDF for the total energy released in coronal flares. This suggests that coronal flares and the photospheric Qi are correlated, and powered by the same process. The model predicts spikes in Qi with values orders of magnitude above background values. These spikes are driven by spikes in the non-force free component of the current density. The times of these spikes are plausibly correlated with times of subsequent M or X flares a few hours to a few days later. The spikes occur on granulation scales, and may be signatures of heating in horizontal current sheets. It is also found that the times of relatively large values of the rate of change of the NLR unsigned magnetic flux are also plausibly correlated with the times of subsequent M and X flares, and spikes in Qi.


Publication:
Pub Date:
April 2020
DOI:
Autodesk Flare 2020 Prediction
10.1007/s11467-020-0956-6
arXiv:
arXiv:2003.01823
Bibcode:
2020FrPhy.1534601G
Keywords:
  • active regions;
  • magnetic fields;
  • flares;
  • forecasting;
  • heating;
  • photosphere;
  • models;
  • magnetohydrodynamics;
  • Astrophysics - Solar and Stellar Astrophysics
E-Print:
37 pages, 15 figures. Corresponding author - Michael L. Goodman

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Prediction
10.1007/s11467-020-0956-6
arXiv:
arXiv:2003.01823
Bibcode:
2020FrPhy.1534601G
Keywords:
  • active regions;
  • magnetic fields;
  • flares;
  • forecasting;
  • heating;
  • photosphere;
  • models;
  • magnetohydrodynamics;
  • Astrophysics - Solar and Stellar Astrophysics
E-Print:
37 pages, 15 figures. Corresponding author - Michael L. Goodman

TV & Movies

New babes? New cities? NEW JOBS? Here's what we think we'll see on upcoming seasons of Keeping Up With the Kardashians

Praise to the reality TV gods!

Keeping Up With the Kardashians will be on the air for at least three more years; according to the Hollywood Reporter, E! renewed the show for several more seasons, running the series into 2020.

While reports vary of how much the famous fam will be getting paid, it's safe to say it's in the ballpark of $100 million USD. No biggie.

Since we've watched KUWTK for the last 10 (!) years, we feel pretty equipped to make some educated guesses on what's to come. Here, our predictions for what crazy sh-t the Kardashians will get up to in the upcoming seasons.

Kris Jenner will announce she's pregnant

The momager can't be left out! With rumours that Kylie Jenner and Khloé Kardashian are expecting—and confirmed news that Kim Kardashian West has a babe on the way—no pregnancy announcement would be too shocking for Kardashian fans. Grandma Kris becoming mama Kris in 2018? We're callin' it! Excentro 1 9 26 mm. Is it possible? WHO CARES!

A post shared by Kim Kardashian West (@kimkardashian) on

Kim will use KUWTK to campaign for president

Yes, Kanye West was supposed to be the next political star, but since he's keeping a low profile these days, what if someone else has her eye on the prize? We already told you all the reasons why we think Kim is eyeing the White House, so we would defs NOT be surprised if she uses her TV time to launch a political campaign. With the next U.S. election in 2020, Kim has three years to convince people that she should be prez. The Kardashians are basically already America's new First Family, TBH, so it's not a far stretch.

https://lastpet397.weebly.com/rainbow-riches-pots-of-gold.html. A post shared by Kim Kardashian West (@kimkardashian) on

Scott Disick will get a spinoff show with Sofia Richie

The Kardashians are legit geniuses when it comes to turning tabloid trash into TV treasure. With the blossoming love between 34-year-old Scott Disick and 19-year-old Sofia Richie making all the headlines, Kourtney Kardashian's former partner likely isn't going off the air any time soon. Macbook pro 10 14 2. We predict a serious spinoff special. *Phone rings* 'Hello? Scott? It's Kris. I have a proposition for you…'

Autodesk Flare 2020 Prediction Chart

https://cixqj.over-blog.com/2021/01/inet-network-scanner-2-4-6-download-free.html. Disk expert 2 9 11. A post shared by Sofia Richie (@sofiarichie) on

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Kendall Jenner will move to the south of France and abandon the family

Autodesk Flare 2020 Prediction 2020

If we're being REAL real, Kendall Jenner is rarely seen on KUWTK, and when she is, she legit looks like she'd rather be. any. where. else. We predict in 2019, Kendall will be so over the whole reality fame game that she will disconnect from the fam, move to the south of France and shack up with a hot European model. We'd support that.

A post shared by Kendall (@kendalljenner) on

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North West will be the most entertaining person on the show

The adorbs four-year-old daughter of Kim and Kayne is actually hilarious. Between sass, an obvious disdain for her baby brother, and a killer fashion sense, North West is destined to be famous. While Nori makes casual appearances on the show now, by 2020, we think she will have taken over the entire series and launched her own multi-billion dollar business. Kan You Keep Up?

A post shared by Kim Kardashian West (@kimkardashian) on

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